And Fed chief Jerome Powell communicated a tapering announcement at the next meeting in November. Tapering is expected to end around mid-2022 and liftoff could occur after that, although 2023 still seems the most likely timing for the start of rate hikes for now.

The updated economic projections released by the Fed showed that the committee expects to raise rates once, to about 0.5%, by 2022, sooner than they anticipated in May. At the time, the median official did not expect to move rates until 2023. Now, nine of the 18 Fed officials at the meeting said they expect to start lifting rates sometime in 2022, while one executive voted for the first rate hike a long way ahead in 2023.

The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment.