Three-year fixed rate provides some certainty for remaining Trump years, at least
Robert McLister: It’s safe to say that April 2's Trump tariff reveal could trigger a pivotal shift in mortgage rates
Canadian mortgage rates slipped yet again this week, falling just in time to meet next week’s incoming tariffs.
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We saw multiple providers dip below four per cent on trusty five-year fixed terms. Ratebuzz.ca, for example, is advertising as low as 3.95 per cent in Ontario. And that’s for non-default insured financing (i.e., refinances and purchases over $1 million).
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Insured five-year terms have been sub-fours for weeks, and this week they got even better. On that front, Nesto now leads the league after dropping 19 basis points to 3.64 per cent.
But there are more than just five-year options. “If you want some certainty for most of Trump’s term, go with a three-year fixed,” says Dan Eisner, founder of True North Mortgage, which sports one of the lowest three-year rates in the nation. “We see 35 per cent of our clients selecting a three-year right now, which is unusually high.”
Meanwhile, variable borrowers looking for rate relief might be disappointed. That is, unless the Bank of Canada conveniently overlooks rising short-term inflation expectations and cuts rates again — amid new tariffs.
And last but not least, we also saw uninsured one-year rates dip this week to 5.39 per cent at Alterna Bank — a solid rate for a term that few want.
In closing, it’s safe to say that next Wednesday’s Trump tariff reveal could trigger a pivotal shift in mortgage rates. And heavyweight economists from Toronto to New York will be perched on the edge of their ergonomic chairs, popcorn in hand.
Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
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