Investing Ideas

Billions in Wrong-Way ETF Bets Placed Just Before Thursday Rout

According to Bloomberg, in the three days through Wednesday last week before market crash on Fed policy statements began, investors infused $426 million to the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (ticker TQQQ), a leveraged product that delivers three-times the return of the Nasdaq 100 Index.

According to Bloomberg, in the three days through Wednesday last week before market crash on Fed policy statements began, investors infused $426 million to the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (ticker TQQQ), a leveraged product that delivers three-times the return of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Caught in the tech stock selloff, it tumbled 15% for both the biggest drop and lowest close since 2020.

In the same time frame almost $1.8 billion poured into the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), just in time for the fund’s worst day in nearly two years. Almost $600 million was plowed into the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which slumped 8.9% for its biggest drop since the height of the Covid turmoil.

It’s possible investors managed to exit before the worst of the declines -- maybe even retaining some of their gains from a day earlier, when stocks enjoyed a broad post-Fed rally. TQQQ and ARKK report flows with a one-day lag, meaning Thursday activity isn’t visible yet. HYG recorded a tiny $23 million outflow.

But flows elsewhere suggest a broad pattern of bets on a change in market sentiment after months of rotation toward value and economically sensitive shares at the expense of growth stocks. Those moves also look ill-timed.

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