International

China Real Estate Crisis Threatens Goal of Doubling Country’s GDP

If the Chinese real estate bubble bursts and triggers a financial crisis, the nation's economic growth will be stuck at around 1%

If the Chinese real estate bubble bursts and triggers a financial crisis, the nation's economic growth will be stuck at around 1%, jeopardizing its goal of doubling gross domestic product by 2035, the Japan Center for Economic Research says in a new report.

The report projects GDP growth for 18 Asia-Pacific countries and regions through 2035, with annual updates made to reflect the latest policies and economic conditions. The JCER released a summary of this year's report Monday.

China's economy has been dragged down by property market woes for more than two years. The government's plans to strengthen financial support for real estate companies could place an excessive burden on the financial system.

Infrastructure and other investment would likely slow sharply as the government prioritizes debt repayment. Capital outflows would accelerate, and the yuan would weaken from its current rate of 7.1 to the dollar to the 9 range.

China's real growth rate would be zero in 2027 under the worst case scenario, as opposed to 3.2% in the report's baseline scenario. After 2029, growth would hover below 1.5%.

International

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