China’s economic outlook was already challenging at the beginning of the year, as the effects of President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on property and other high-growth industries rippled through the world’s second-largest economy.

But the view has deteriorated ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics’ April 18 release of its estimates for first-quarter gross domestic product growth. Meanwhile, Xi’s administration is grappling with a Covid-19 nightmare that has gripped some of the country’s largest cities over the past month.

Monday’s statistical release will capture only a small sample of the upheaval stemming from the lockdown in Shanghai, China’s most populous city and its most important financial and manufacturing centre, which did not become a full-blown crisis until the end of March.

Previously, large-scale disruptions were concentrated in the northern city of Xi’an, which had a surge in cases in January, and more recently in Jilin province, an important agricultural producer and automotive centre. China’s economic output expanded 4% YoY over the last three months of 2021, down from 4.9% in the previous quarter.