Weaker inflation — even in the U.S. — what the Bank of Canada is hoping for
Canadian government bond yields, which steer fixed mortgage rates, fall
The consumer price index (CPI) looked promising in the United States today as inflation chilled to three per cent, just a hair above a three-year low. Canadian government bond yields — which steer fixed mortgage rates — promptly dove as a result.
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Weaker inflation, even in the U.S., is precisely what the Bank of Canada is hoping for. And next up, we’ve got the all-important Canadian CPI report on Tuesday. The bond market is optimistic it’ll be a passable number, with traders pricing in a two in three chance of a central bank interest rate cut on July 24.
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The lowest nationally advertised rates haven’t budged an inch compared to last week. But we could see a slight improvement on some leading fixed terms next week.
Three-year mortgages — which sell in the high fours (if insured) or low fives (uninsured) — are still seducing most fixed borrowers. Insured five-year fixed rates as low as 4.44 per cent are starting to pique borrower interest, however.
On the variable front, it’s a tale of two rates. A vast gap remains between insured and uninsured floating rates, which start around 5.65 per cent and 6.10 per cent, respectively. This spread reflects the risk, liquidity and capital benefits lenders enjoy from good ol’ government-backed mortgage securitization.
Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
The rates displayed below are updated by the end of each day and are sourced from the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey produced by MortgageLogic.news. Postmedia and Imaginative. Online Inc., parent of MortgageLogic.news, are compensated by certain mortgage providers when you click on their links in the charts.
