U.S. stocks roar back as Treasuries halt bearish frenzy
Stocks climbed the most in about a month as Treasury yields halted a surge to multiyear highs, with traders sifting through remarks from a slew of Federal Reserve speakers. Oil plunged, easing concern about price pressures that could imperil the central bank’s war against inflation.
About 95 per cent of the companies in the S&P 500 moved higher, with every group but energy ending in the green. Only four of the Nasdaq 100’s members fell as a rally in the tech-heavy gauge topped 2 per cent. Apple Inc. rose after unveiling a new lineup of devices with few surprises beyond one major one: It didn’t raise its US prices during one of the worst years for inflation in decades.
“Stocks are rebounding as the global bond market selloff takes a break,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. “Economic momentum remains for the US economy, and that could only improve if inflation continues to soften. Investors seem poised to enter a holding pattern until the September 13th inflation report.”
Oil benchmarks took a hit as demand concerns emanating from China prompted a wave of selling as prices breached technical warning levels. West Texas Intermediate settled below US$82 a barrel while Brent closed at US$88. The dollar fell after a rally that rattled currencies around the globe and briefly drove gold below the “danger zone” of US$1,700 per ounce.
In the final week before officials enter a blackout period ahead of the Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the US will have to raise interest rates to restrictive levels, while cautioning risks would become more two-sided in the future. She also sees the scope for lower retail margins to ease price pressures.
Separately, Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester warned against declaring early victory on inflation, while her Boston counterpart Susan Collins said it’s too soon to specify what policy makers should do at this month’s gathering. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said that inflation is “far too high” and central bankers are committed to restoring price stability.
High prices and a tight labor market weighed on US economic prospects over the next year, though inflation showed signs of decelerating, the Fed said in its Beige Book.
Equities have tumbled since mid-August amid a panoply of risks spanning from restrictive central banks, Europe’s energy crisis and China’s economic slowdown. The recent slide in the S&P 500 pared a bounce from June lows that a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. team led by Peter Oppenheimer described as a “bear-market rally.” The strategists “expect further weakness and bumpy markets before a decisive trough is established.”
American stocks haven’t fallen enough to account for the elevated inflation pressures that will drive the Fed to keep interest rates high for a sustained period of time, said billionaire investor Thomas Peterffy.
The founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers Group Inc. told Bloomberg Television the S&P 500 won’t hit a bottom until it trades at levels between 3,300 and 3,500. After it reaches that trough, it will stay there for “a while” until the US contends with an inflation-fueled economy. The gauge closed at 3,979.87 Wednesday.
“Economies all around the world are slowing down, and that’s really not a market that says we’re on the verge of a dynamic rebound in equities,” Margaret Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, told Bloomberg Television. “Earnings are going to decelerate a lot. That says a lot of stocks could go down.”
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities for a third straight week. As the S&P 500 posted weekly losses of over 3 per cent, the group sold US$1.9 billion in equities, including exchange-traded funds and single stocks, strategists led by Jill Carey Hall wrote.
The weakening economy should favor continued outperformance for cheaper, so-called value stocks over their growth equivalents, a separate Goldman note from strategists led by Cormac Conners said.
What to watch this week:
- European Central Bank rate decision, Thursday
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to speak, Thursday
- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and his Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari due to speak, Thursday
- EU energy ministers extraordinary meeting on emergency intervention in electricity markets, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 1.8 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.1 per cent
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4 per cent
- The MSCI World index rose 1.1 per cent
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4 per cent
- The euro rose 1 per cent to US$1.0007
- The British pound was little changed at US$1.1528
- The Japanese yen fell 0.7 per cent to 143.74 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 3.26 per cent
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 1.58 per cent
- Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 3.03 per cent
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.8 per cent to US$81.85 a barrel
- Gold futures rose 0.9 per cent to US$1,728.60 an ounce