A second presidential term for Donald Trump would likely bring about extreme protectionism, a large negative population shock and a surge of debt issuance to fund “totally undisciplined fiscal policy,” a top Canadian economist warned.

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The Republican candidate’s proposed policies and “likely debasement of democratic and market institutions would be ruinous to the U.S. and global economies,” Derek Holt, Bank of Nova Scotia’s head of capital markets economics, said in a note to investors.

“The U.S. economy doesn’t need pump-priming, it’s in excess demand and will remain there next year, and Trump’s plans risk being highly destabilizing to world markets in a much more fractured world,” Holt wrote. “The U.S. needs to assert control over its borders, but Trump’s extreme immigration policies would severely damage the U.S. economy.”

Holt added: “America’s fiscal position is living on borrowed time and the more damage that’s done now, the higher taxes will go in future in a potentially more divided and more dangerous world.”

An analysis by Bloomberg Economics last month estimated that U.S. debt may rise to 116 per cent of gross domestic product under Trump’s tax-cut plan, from 99 per cent currently. Under Harris’s platform, it would be on a path to 109 per cent.

It’s highly unusual for a Canadian bank economist to write about U.S. politics using such stark language. Canada ships about three-quarters of its exports to its southern neighbour, and is also a huge importer of goods and services from the U.S. In fact, Canada is the largest export destination for 34 U.S. states, according to calculations by economist Trevor Tombe using U.S. government data. As such, it has plenty at stake in the direction of U.S. trade and foreign policy.

Holt said his note isn’t an endorsement of Kamala Harris, who was one of the few U.S. senators to vote against the revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in 2020. Democrats have made major errors during the Biden administration, including on immigration, the Scotiabank economist said.

“It’s a matter of picking the one you think will be less damaging,” Hold said. “As a professional economist, I have no doubt that this means voting against Donald Trump and the weak self-serving men behind him.”

Other Canadian economists have taken a more balanced view of the economic outcomes of a Trump presidency. While a tariff war is a potential drag on global growth, Trump’s fiscal plans would be a tailwind in other respects — for example, they might trigger a rally in risk assets like equities, economists from Desjardins Group said earlier this month.

The outlook for inflation and economic growth in the U.S. would be roughly the same whether Harris or Trump wins the election, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists published last week.

Trump’s “clear preference toward allowing Russia to have its way with Ukraine, and China with Taiwan,” would be the biggest foreign policy mistakes since the appeasement of Germany in the late 1930s, Holt wrote.

“There are those in my industry who I know will scoff at this,” the economist said. “They will put self-interest above the nation’s and the world’s interests.”

Bloomberg.com