Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management

FOCUS: Technical analysis 

MARKET OUTLOOK:

One of the benefits of being in this business for 34 years is that I have been sitting in the same seat through many corrections and crashes. You learn a few things over those many years. You look for patterns. You look at crowd behaviour.

Today, I see some similar price and behavioural patterns in the Nasdaq Composite Index in 2001. That year was the last time we saw such concentrated strength (low breadth) in so few tech stocks. I strongly encourage you to check my blogs outlining breadth research – they will help you understand how closely the current market resembles the 2001 market.

The leading tech stocks fell hard in 2001. Take a look at MSFT, CSCO or INTC from 2000 to 2015. They crashed, then traded sideways for two to four years before resuming a bullish trend. The question I am asking now is will the historic pattern for low-breadth bubbles and crashes happen again? Will there be a crash? Will the current tech leaders go sideways like they did after the 2001 crash? Only time will tell.

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TOP PICKS:

BMO Emerging Markets ETF (ZEM TSX)

CASH

We are 25 per cent cash due to our view of market risk

Cameco (CCO TSX)

We have held this stock (traded it in and out a couple of times) for a couple of years now. Our view is bullish uranium for the coming five years. Uptrend. 

PAST PICKS: February 26, 2024

Dollar General (DG NYSE)

• Then: US$138.79
• Now: US$125.43
• Return: -10%
• Total Return: -9%

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ TSX) (2 FOR 1 STOCK SPLIT 6/11/24)

• Then: $88.98
• Now: $49.82
• Return: 12%
• Total Return: 14%

iShares Global Agriculture Index ETF (COW TSX)

• Then: $60.52
• Now: $59.45
• Return: -2%
• Total Return: -1%

Total Return Average: 1%