Global traders cancel happy hour, brace for Powell in late-night watch
From cancelling Friday night trips to the pub to pushing back soccer practice, global investors are pulling out all the stops to ensure they’re ready for the most important gathering of central bankers this year.
Min Gyeong-won is taking no chances as the countdown begins to the Federal Reserve’s landmark Jackson Hole event, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to restate his resolve to fight inflation and push back against bets he will take his foot off the pedal next year.
Instead of chowing down on fugu -- a delicacy involving poisonous blowfish -- and enjoying Happy Hour at Busan Bokjib in Seoul, he’ll be glued to his screens as Powell takes center stage.
“This is more important than jobs data in the US, and even more than previous Jackson Hole meetings,” the economist at Woori Bank said. “Usually there are meetings in the pub on Thursday or Friday night, but I’m not going to make an appointment tonight.”
Min is not alone.
PUB MEETINGS
Market participants from Tokyo to Sydney are axing dinner plans and sacrificing weekend activities to prep for what could be a rocky Monday trading session if Powell’s comments reshape views on the path of monetary tightening around the globe.
Recent market action underscores trader nervousness: Global stocks slumped at the beginning of the week before attempting a tentative recovery and bond yields have pushed higher. The closely-watched Cboe Volatility Index jumped from a mid-August slumber.
Powell’s speech will land late in the evening for Tellimer’s Nirgunan Tiruchelvam in Singapore, so he’s aiming to kill two birds with one stone -- attempt to enjoy his evening at the pub while keeping tabs on markets.
“I am preparing for Jackson Hole by checking the watering holes of Boat Quay a bit longer than my usual time,” said the head of consumer equity research in Singapore. “Some of my clients from hedge funds and long-only ones will be joining me in this quest.”
That’s not an option for Brian Gould in Melbourne, who is staying up for late meetings with peers in London and the US to help monitor markets in the event Powell’s speech spikes volatility.
“It’ll be midnight Sydney time and it’s not ideal, but you do what you have to do,” said the head of trading at Capital.com. He plans to arrive at his Collins Street office before dawn on Monday. “Monday could be quite different from the action overnight -- we’ve seen clients taking positions off the table into Jackson Hole.”
“There is always soccer practice on Saturday morning, but tomorrow morning I will check Jackson Hole first,” he said. “I want to distribute the information on Monday morning, so I will be working Sunday afternoon as well this weekend.”
Soccer is also taking second place in Nick Twidale’s schedule as he braces for the fallout from the Fed chair’s speech.
“Last year I’d have been watching sport with Powell in the background,” said the Asia Pacific chief executive at FP Markets in Sydney. “Powell supersedes West Ham in priorities tonight.”
DONE DEAL
To be sure, not everyone is staying up.
Darren Langer, co-head of Australian fixed income at Yarra Capital Management, is one of them. Experience has taught the 30-year bond veteran that central bankers tend to telegraph their policy thoughts well ahead of the symposium, so sitting up for it “is not going to really change our view” on markets.
“It’s usually a cerebral love fest for the central banks to sort of talk more about central banking policy than it is necessarily about immediate concerns,” said the Sydney-based fund manager. “Press conferences tend to be sometimes where they might let something slip, but the Fed speak has been all from the same sheet.”
Others like Akira Takei, a money manager at Asset Management One Co., also plan to relax while keeping an eye on Powell.
“I may watch it, kicking back and watching like a YouTube program,” said Takei, whose Tokyo-based company oversees US$524 billion. “He will deliver hawkish remarks like he has done in the recent past. The question is how the market will take them.”
HANGOVER RELIEF
While some are more sanguine, it’s safe to say that the majority of Asia-based traders will be on their toes as Powell briefs the world on his monetary policy thoughts.
Tony Sycamore is definitely not missing any of the action even though the key event kicks off at midnight in Sydney. He’ll be taking notes with a glass of wine by his side as the speech unfolds.
“Jackson Hole trumps all Fed events,” said the senior market analyst at City Index. “You could say it interfered with many of our Friday nights over the past few decades, it probably saved us a few hangovers as well.”
Back in Seoul, Heo Pil-Seok will tune in to the key address from the backseat of his sedan on his way home late Friday evening.
“I’ll be trading right away from my smartphone while listening to Powell,” the chief executive at Midas International Asset Management said. “On a night with such a huge event, I could be up all night watching the market through dawn.”