Citigroup Inc. economists have labeled a global recession a “clear and present danger,” while repeating they estimate a 50 per cent probability of such a slump.

In a report to clients, economists led by Nathan Sheets said they now expect the world economy to grow 2.9 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2023, slightly lower than previously. 

That means global growth will be below trend with the US and euro area expected to slip into mild recessions over the next 12 to 18 months. 

“On balance, our forecast sees the global economy skating through and avoiding a synchronized downturn,” the economists said. “The risks to our forecast look skewed heavily to the downside. As such, we also reaffirm our 50 per cent recession call articulated.” 

“Global recession is, indisputably, a clear and present danger,” they said.